Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -20.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -2800 BALL +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +10 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -25.6 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (+6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -21.9 (-11.9) | 150.6 (+13.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -20.8 (-10.8) | 150.6 (+13.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -18.7 (-8.7) | 149.8 (+14.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -22.6 (-12.6) | 151.3 (+12.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | AKR 78 – 65 BALL |
| Feb 26, 2025 | AKR 87 – 82 BALL |
| Feb 5, 2025 | AKR 81 – 73 BALL |
| Jan 10, 2024 | AKR 80 – 76 BALL |
| Mar 1, 2023 | AKR 87 – 83 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-0 | 7-7 |
| Away | 9-3 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 71.4 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#53) | -10.8 (#321) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#58) | -2.70 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.12 (#70) | -3.25 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#44) | 0.366 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.5% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.6% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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