Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -500 BALL +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +4 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -7.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+31.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -6.7 (-2.7) | 143.5 (+26.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -6.0 (-2.0) | 145.1 (+24.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -5.8 (-1.8) | 146.7 (+23.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -6.2 (-2.2) | 145.8 (+24.2) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | AKR 78 – 65 BALL |
| Jan 14, 2026 | AKR 87 – 77 BALL |
| Feb 26, 2025 | AKR 87 – 82 BALL |
| Feb 5, 2025 | AKR 81 – 73 BALL |
| Jan 10, 2024 | AKR 80 – 76 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#98) | 1.1 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#116) | 0.38 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#121) | 0.31 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#92) | 0.521 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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