Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | BALL +260 AKR -320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +5 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -6.8 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -5.1 (+0.1) | 156.7 (+12.3) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -6.2 (+1.2) | 156.4 (+12.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -5.0 (+0.0) | 154.5 (+14.5) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -5.5 (+0.5) | 155.2 (+13.8) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | AKR 78 – 65 BALL |
| Jan 14, 2026 | AKR 87 – 77 BALL |
| Feb 5, 2025 | AKR 81 – 73 BALL |
| Jan 10, 2024 | AKR 80 – 76 BALL |
| Mar 1, 2023 | AKR 87 – 83 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 17-1 |
| Home | 8-7 | 16-0 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#263) | 4.0 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#268) | 1.02 (#89) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#284) | 1.03 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#276) | 0.583 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.7% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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