Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | UNI -111 SIU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +12 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | SIU -1.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -1.3 (+13.3) | 128.6 (-2.6) | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -0.2 (+12.2) | 129.7 (-3.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -1.7 (+13.7) | 129.9 (-3.9) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -2.5 (+14.5) | 130.5 (-4.5) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SIU 59 – 57 UNI |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SIU 65 – 50 UNI |
| Jan 19, 2025 | SIU 73 – 49 UNI |
| Dec 29, 2024 | UNI 78 – 67 SIU |
| Mar 3, 2024 | UNI 82 – 70 SIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-8 | 13-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 61.7 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#206) | 3.8 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#256) | 1.18 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#221) | 0.96 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#258) | 0.550 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 21.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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