Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ULM +260 USM -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +5 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -12.3 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (-11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -10.1 (+5.1) | 137.2 (-12.2) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -7.9 (+2.9) | 135.1 (-10.1) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -8.9 (+3.9) | 136.6 (-11.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -8.5 (+3.5) | 136.0 (-11.0) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | USM 70 – 60 ULM |
| Jan 1, 2026 | USM 87 – 73 ULM |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ULM 81 – 74 USM |
| Jan 10, 2025 | USM 84 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 16, 2024 | ULM 68 – 59 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 14-4 |
| Home | 7-8 | 15-0 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L8 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 67.5 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#324) | 7.5 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#274) | 1.68 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#255) | 2.10 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#289) | 0.593 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 22.2% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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