Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | BUF -600 NIU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +18 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -9.3 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -6.1 (+11.9) | 151.8 (-9.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -9.3 (+8.7) | 151.3 (-9.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -6.7 (+11.3) | 151.2 (-9.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -6.2 (+11.8) | 151.5 (-9.5) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NIU 72 – 70 BUF |
| Dec 31, 2025 | BUF 81 – 67 NIU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | BUF 73 – 67 NIU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | NIU 78 – 68 BUF |
| Feb 14, 2024 | NIU 72 – 68 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 5-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#224) | -8.0 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#200) | -1.30 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#200) | -1.48 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#174) | 0.455 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.8% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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