Betting Lines
| Spread | NIU -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | NIU -450 BUF +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | NIU -10.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIU -9.3 (-5.3) | 148.8 (-8.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIU -6.6 (-2.6) | 149.3 (-9.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIU -9.3 (-5.3) | 148.3 (-8.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIU -9.0 (-5.0) | 148.7 (-8.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NIU 72 – 70 BUF |
| Dec 31, 2025 | BUF 81 – 67 NIU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | BUF 73 – 67 NIU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | NIU 78 – 68 BUF |
| Mar 1, 2023 | BUF 85 – 75 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 2-16 |
| Home | 5-9 | 2-13 |
| Away | 5-11 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 79.6 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#280) | -14.1 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#266) | -2.84 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#265) | -3.67 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#239) | 0.407 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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