Betting Lines
| Spread | NIU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | BUF -111 NIU -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +10 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | NIU -2.1 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIU -3.6 (-6.4) | 148.5 (-2.5) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIU -2.1 (-7.9) | 145.8 (+0.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIU -2.8 (-7.2) | 145.8 (+0.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIU -2.7 (-7.3) | 147.1 (-1.1) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NIU 72 – 70 BUF |
| Dec 31, 2025 | BUF 81 – 67 NIU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | BUF 73 – 67 NIU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | NIU 72 – 68 BUF |
| Mar 1, 2023 | BUF 85 – 75 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 5-13 |
| Home | 2-13 | 5-9 |
| Away | 2-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -13.3 (#343) | -8.0 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.61 (#350) | -1.03 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.26 (#350) | -1.37 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#337) | 0.461 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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