Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | NIU +180 BUF -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +10 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | NIU -1.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIU -1.3 (-11.3) | 152.7 (+7.3) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -1.3 (-8.7) | 152.4 (+7.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIU -1.3 (-11.3) | 152.6 (+7.4) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NIU -1.0 (-11.0) | 154.3 (+5.7) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NIU 72 – 70 BUF |
| Dec 31, 2025 | BUF 81 – 67 NIU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | BUF 73 – 67 NIU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | NIU 78 – 68 BUF |
| Feb 14, 2024 | NIU 72 – 68 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 5-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-10 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 79.0 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#243) | -2.0 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#247) | -0.37 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#243) | -0.51 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#233) | 0.486 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.5% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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