Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | BUF -500 NIU +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIU +2 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -12.7 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (-5.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -10.3 (-12.3) | 140.7 (+1.3) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -10.2 (-12.2) | 141.3 (+0.7) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -9.9 (-11.9) | 141.8 (+0.2) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -11.9 (-13.9) | 141.7 (+0.3) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | BUF 81 – 67 NIU |
| Feb 12, 2025 | BUF 73 – 67 NIU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | NIU 78 – 68 BUF |
| Feb 14, 2024 | NIU 72 – 68 BUF |
| Mar 1, 2023 | BUF 85 – 75 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 7-8 | 6-7 |
| Away | 8-6 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#185) | -10.9 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.03 (#161) | -1.44 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#161) | -2.10 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#146) | 0.441 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 29.1% |
Game Analysis
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