Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | NIU +220 BUF -270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +14 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -6.6 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -6.8 (-7.2) | 145.1 (+2.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -4.8 (-9.2) | 144.9 (+3.1) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -7.6 (-6.4) | 146.6 (+1.4) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -7.0 (-7.0) | 147.9 (+0.1) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NIU 72 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 12, 2025 | BUF 73 – 67 NIU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | NIU 78 – 68 BUF |
| Feb 14, 2024 | NIU 72 – 68 BUF |
| Mar 1, 2023 | BUF 85 – 75 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-7 | 7-8 |
| Away | 3-14 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.3 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#308) | 0.5 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#273) | 1.24 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.95 (#284) | 1.51 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#288) | 0.556 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 37.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 64.7% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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