Betting Lines
| Spread | NIU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | NIU -130 BUF +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +6 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | NIU -1.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NIU -1.0 (-7.0) | 150.8 (-10.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NIU -0.6 (-6.6) | 145.5 (-5.5) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NIU -0.2 (-6.2) | 149.2 (-9.2) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NIU -0.5 (-6.5) | 150.7 (-10.7) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NIU 72 – 70 BUF |
| Dec 31, 2025 | BUF 81 – 67 NIU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | NIU 78 – 68 BUF |
| Feb 14, 2024 | NIU 72 – 68 BUF |
| Mar 1, 2023 | BUF 85 – 75 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 4-14 |
| Home | 5-10 | 6-9 |
| Away | 1-15 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 81.6 |
| Massey | -14.8 (#355) | -13.1 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.78 (#353) | -1.81 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.11 (#345) | -2.59 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.373 (#353) | 0.420 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 17.5% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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