Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | INST -1000 UIC +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +20 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | INST -15.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -13.0 (+7.0) | 147.0 (-7.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -11.1 (+8.9) | 148.0 (-8.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -12.2 (+7.8) | 146.9 (-6.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -12.9 (+7.1) | 146.2 (-6.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | INST 79 – 63 UIC |
| Jan 28, 2026 | UIC 76 – 74 INST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | INST 88 – 83 UIC |
| Feb 25, 2024 | INST 88 – 73 UIC |
| Jan 25, 2024 | INST 89 – 83 UIC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 4-16 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#91) | -6.1 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#102) | -0.61 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#112) | -0.92 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.529 (#123) | 0.466 (#236) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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