Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | TROY -600 ARST +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +12 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -17.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -11.7 (+0.3) | 131.2 (-11.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -10.9 (+1.1) | 129.1 (-9.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -11.7 (+0.3) | 133.3 (-13.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -12.1 (-0.1) | 133.9 (-13.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | TROY 99 – 74 ARST |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ARST 86 – 74 TROY |
| Mar 10, 2025 | TROY 94 – 81 ARST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | TROY 71 – 70 ARST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | ARST 84 – 78 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-8 |
| Away | 7-8 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#93) | -8.4 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#126) | -1.00 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#113) | -1.57 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#132) | 0.414 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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