Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | BRAD -1400 VAL +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +22 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -20.8 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.9 (+29.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -18.2 (+3.8) | 132.5 (+21.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -16.1 (+5.9) | 131.6 (+22.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -16.2 (+5.8) | 131.0 (+23.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -18.9 (+3.1) | 131.8 (+22.2) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | BRAD 90 – 84 VAL |
| Feb 19, 2026 | VAL 79 – 72 BRAD |
| Feb 4, 2026 | BRAD 72 – 65 VAL |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRAD 70 – 65 VAL |
| Feb 27, 2025 | BRAD 76 – 65 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 5-15 |
| Home | 15-1 | 8-7 |
| Away | 8-6 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#66) | -8.6 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.84 (#101) | -1.50 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#103) | -2.00 (#314) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#94) | 0.401 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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