Betting Lines
| Spread | MORG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MORG +100 NCCU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +5 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | NCCU -0.7 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -0.9 (+5.9) | 145.4 (+5.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -0.6 (+5.6) | 145.0 (+6.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORG -0.1 (+4.9) | 146.9 (+4.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -0.1 (+4.9) | 148.1 (+2.9) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NCCU 80 – 76 MORG |
| Jan 12, 2026 | NCCU 89 – 78 MORG |
| Feb 18, 2025 | MORG 92 – 78 NCCU |
| Jan 7, 2025 | MORG 102 – 98 NCCU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MORG 88 – 79 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 10-4 |
| Home | 10-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-12 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#242) | 1.2 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#248) | -0.65 (#243) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#306) | -0.51 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#187) | 0.475 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 60.5% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.5% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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