Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | NORF -400 UMES +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +11 | 103 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -7.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-39.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -4.5 (+6.5) | 139.1 (-36.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -4.9 (+6.1) | 138.8 (-35.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -5.6 (+5.4) | 142.5 (-39.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -5.1 (+5.9) | 143.2 (-40.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NORF 70 – 66 UMES |
| Jan 13, 2026 | UMES 74 – 70 NORF |
| Mar 12, 2025 | NORF 77 – 70 UMES |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NORF 75 – 63 UMES |
| Jan 4, 2025 | NORF 81 – 59 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 9-5 |
| Home | 10-2 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 68.9 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#217) | -5.9 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#110) | -0.12 (#183) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#121) | -0.16 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#98) | 0.521 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 26.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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