Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UAPB +225 TXSO -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +4 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | UAPB -0.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -1.5 (+5.5) | 142.6 (-6.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -1.3 (+5.3) | 141.7 (-5.7) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -0.9 (+4.9) | 139.5 (-3.5) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -1.1 (+5.1) | 140.0 (-4.0) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | TXSO 83 – 64 UAPB |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UAPB 74 – 66 TXSO |
| Feb 25, 2025 | TXSO 81 – 56 UAPB |
| Feb 4, 2025 | UAPB 69 – 68 TXSO |
| Feb 27, 2024 | TXSO 77 – 70 UAPB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 14-21 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 7-6 |
| Away | 2-16 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L9 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -10.7 (#339) | -6.5 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.16 (#356) | -1.51 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.42 (#356) | -1.92 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#331) | 0.447 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.8% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.5% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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