Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | CONN -350 CREI +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +9 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -11.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -10.2 (-1.2) | 146.0 (-17.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -11.0 (-2.0) | 141.6 (-12.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -9.6 (-0.6) | 145.4 (-16.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -9.6 (-0.6) | 144.2 (-15.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | CREI 91 – 84 CONN |
| Feb 1, 2026 | CONN 85 – 58 CREI |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CREI 71 – 62 CONN |
| Feb 12, 2025 | CONN 70 – 66 CREI |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CREI 68 – 63 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-8 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 10-1 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 19.8 (#3) | 13.0 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.47 (#6) | 1.31 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.47 (#5) | 1.85 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#8) | 0.581 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 24.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 11.3% |
Game Analysis
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