Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Over |
| Money | CAL +320 STAN -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +22 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -4.9 (+26.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.7 (+41.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -5.4 (+27.4) | 130.0 (+32.0) | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -5.8 (+27.8) | 128.0 (+34.0) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -6.0 (+28.0) | 130.4 (+31.6) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -4.9 (+26.9) | 131.3 (+30.7) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | CAL 72 – 66 STAN |
| Jan 25, 2026 | CAL 78 – 66 STAN |
| Mar 12, 2025 | STAN 78 – 73 CAL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | STAN 66 – 61 CAL |
| Dec 7, 2024 | STAN 89 – 81 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 7-13 |
| Home | 3-14 | 9-6 |
| Away | 0-12 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L16 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.3 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 68.4 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#236) | 5.8 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#324) | -0.40 (#218) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#317) | -0.04 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#277) | 0.501 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 27.5% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.66 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.