Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | UNCA -188 CAM +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +3 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -7.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-30.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -5.0 (-2.0) | 138.0 (-25.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -3.8 (-0.8) | 137.7 (-24.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -5.2 (-2.2) | 140.4 (-27.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -4.9 (-1.9) | 140.5 (-27.5) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2023 | UNCA 77 – 73 CAM |
| Jan 28, 2023 | UNCA 78 – 65 CAM |
| Jan 6, 2022 | UNCA 60 – 54 CAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | CAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-0 | 8-6 |
| Away | 10-6 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 69.0 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#201) | -4.3 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#145) | -0.92 (#268) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#169) | -1.10 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#145) | 0.431 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | CAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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