Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -350 WIS +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +10 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -8.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (+15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -4.3 (+5.7) | 136.4 (+11.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -6.3 (+3.7) | 135.9 (+12.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -4.3 (+5.7) | 135.4 (+12.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -4.6 (+5.4) | 135.5 (+12.5) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | WIS 91 – 88 ILL |
| Feb 11, 2026 | WIS 92 – 90 ILL |
| Feb 19, 2025 | WIS 95 – 74 ILL |
| Dec 11, 2024 | ILL 86 – 80 WIS |
| Mar 17, 2024 | ILL 93 – 87 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#32) | 7.4 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#69) | 2.92 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#71) | 3.76 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#91) | 0.611 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 16.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.