Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | STBK +225 TOW -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +12 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -4.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -5.4 (-6.6) | 129.2 (-7.2) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -3.4 (-8.6) | 129.9 (-7.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -3.6 (-8.4) | 130.9 (-8.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -4.4 (-7.6) | 129.1 (-7.1) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | TOW 69 – 57 STBK |
| Feb 13, 2026 | TOW 69 – 57 STBK |
| Feb 6, 2025 | TOW 66 – 59 STBK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TOW 53 – 49 STBK |
| Jan 12, 2024 | TOW 73 – 64 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-2 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.5 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#319) | 0.1 (#173) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#280) | 0.39 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#284) | 0.41 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#286) | 0.517 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 35.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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