Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | STBK -102 TOW -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +12 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | STBK -0.4 (-12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (-4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STBK -0.3 (-12.3) | 132.0 (-6.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -1.3 (-10.7) | 133.2 (-7.2) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STBK -1.0 (-13.0) | 130.3 (-4.3) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STBK -0.4 (-12.4) | 131.5 (-5.5) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | TOW 69 – 57 STBK |
| Feb 6, 2025 | TOW 66 – 59 STBK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TOW 53 – 49 STBK |
| Jan 12, 2024 | TOW 73 – 64 STBK |
| Jan 7, 2023 | TOW 67 – 55 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#220) | -0.7 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#185) | -0.07 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#197) | -0.17 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#183) | 0.524 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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