Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | STBK +300 TOW -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STBK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +7 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -7.4 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (-6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -7.1 (+0.1) | 131.9 (-6.9) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -7.3 (+0.3) | 130.4 (-5.4) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -7.5 (+0.5) | 132.0 (-7.0) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -7.3 (+0.3) | 132.9 (-7.9) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | TOW 69 – 57 STBK |
| Feb 13, 2026 | TOW 69 – 57 STBK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TOW 53 – 49 STBK |
| Jan 12, 2024 | TOW 73 – 64 STBK |
| Jan 7, 2023 | TOW 67 – 55 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STBK | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 16-2 |
| Home | 5-9 | 12-1 |
| Away | 3-13 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -11.6 (#332) | -1.0 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#333) | 0.49 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.69 (#335) | 0.37 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.420 (#318) | 0.544 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STBK | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.5% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.4% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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