Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | TOW -325 STBK +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +12 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -5.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.5 (-3.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -3.2 (+8.8) | 136.0 (-10.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -5.5 (+6.5) | 135.5 (-9.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -2.7 (+9.3) | 133.6 (-7.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -3.6 (+8.4) | 135.0 (-9.0) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | TOW 69 – 57 STBK |
| Feb 6, 2025 | TOW 66 – 59 STBK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TOW 53 – 49 STBK |
| Jan 12, 2024 | TOW 73 – 64 STBK |
| Jan 7, 2023 | TOW 67 – 55 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.4 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#176) | -2.8 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#178) | -0.04 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#185) | -0.19 (#183) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#125) | 0.506 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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