Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | TOW -188 STBK +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +9 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -6.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -5.3 (+3.7) | 133.3 (+3.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -3.5 (+5.5) | 134.8 (+2.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -3.9 (+5.1) | 135.3 (+1.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -3.7 (+5.3) | 135.2 (+1.8) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | TOW 69 – 57 STBK |
| Feb 13, 2026 | TOW 69 – 57 STBK |
| Feb 6, 2025 | TOW 66 – 59 STBK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TOW 53 – 49 STBK |
| Jan 7, 2023 | TOW 67 – 55 STBK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 20-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-6 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#189) | -3.9 (#241) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#182) | -0.10 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#182) | 0.36 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#205) | 0.483 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | STBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 15.9 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 42.2% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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