Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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81–37 on winners spread MAE 8.8 118 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Cornell @ Princeton +3.1 160.0 64% 82–89 ✓
Columbia @ Pennsylvania +12.6 147.3 88% 65–74 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Rider +7.8 129.7 78% 61–82 ✓
Fairfield @ Quinnipiac +8.0 135.7 81% 51–66 ✓
Siena @ Manhattan -6.6 139.1 24% 66–71 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Iona +13.2 138.3 87% 51–81 ✓
VCU @ Saint Louis +2.6 140.8 63% 73–65 ✗
Canisius @ Niagara +4.8 132.1 69% 73–76 ✓
Boise State @ San Diego State +3.5 136.5 66% 52–72 ✓
Kent State @ Akron +1.0 134.7 55% 55–67 ✓
Fresno State @ UNLV +10.3 133.6 84% 82–79 ✗
Air Force @ Nevada +11.3 139.1 87% 52–72 ✓
Virginia @ Virginia Tech -1.0 134.9 44% 68–74 ✗
Kansas @ Iowa State +2.0 138.8 58% 53–68 ✓
UConn @ Georgetown -13.1 149.5 15% 68–62 ✓
UCF @ Cincinnati +4.6 141.0 71% 64–73 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ SE Louisiana +1.3 157.7 59% 83–72 ✗
Michigan State @ Rutgers +7.1 131.4 76% 55–61 ✓
Green Bay @ IU Indianapolis +3.2 134.8 63% 53–68 ✓
Davidson @ Massachusetts +2.8 142.9 64% 93–78 ✗
Texas Tech @ Baylor +7.8 146.3 79% 62–89 ✓
Lehigh @ Lafayette +0.7 129.3 54% 66–64 ✗
Wake Forest @ Notre Dame -3.7 150.3 33% 81–64 ✓
Georgia Tech @ NC State +13.4 144.6 89% 64–72 ✓
NJIT @ UMass Lowell +11.0 144.7 87% 61–90 ✓
New Hampshire @ Bryant +4.8 149.5 71% 46–70 ✓
Delaware State @ Morgan State +5.1 139.3 71% 65–75 ✓
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt +3.1 140.4 67% 71–74 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ The Citadel -7.5 130.0 22% 79–59 ✓
Wagner @ Fairleigh Dickinson +1.6 140.7 61% 83–79 ✗
Stonehill @ St. Francis Brooklyn -1.1 132.0 44% 65–59 ✓
Cleveland State @ Oakland -1.8 144.8 43% 89–92 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Detroit Mercy +1.2 151.1 58% 52–85 ✓
Auburn @ Tennessee +11.3 130.8 85% 43–46 ✓
Butler @ Marquette +12.7 146.4 88% 52–60 ✓
TCU @ Oklahoma State +1.9 139.1 59% 73–79 ✓
Tulane @ Memphis +7.4 159.8 78% 90–89 ✗
Evansville @ UIC +7.8 142.5 77% 61–70 ✓
Florida State @ Louisville -2.7 142.4 37% 81–78 ✓
UMBC @ Maine -0.1 144.2 49% 49–84 ✗
Navy @ Holy Cross -4.0 136.1 31% 86–68 ✓
Duquesne @ George Washington +0.2 152.7 51% 93–67 ✗
Winthrop @ Radford +7.7 136.6 80% 66–69 ✓
Presbyterian @ Gardner-Webb +10.4 130.3 86% 48–56 ✓
Campbell @ Longwood +5.5 134.8 74% 50–74 ✓
Chattanooga @ Western Carolina -0.7 147.2 46% 68–83 ✗
VMI @ Mercer +7.5 136.5 78% 54–80 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Ohio +10.0 152.8 86% 68–78 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Sacred Heart +2.9 137.0 63% 65–78 ✓
Southern Miss @ Georgia State -8.1 133.9 22% 79–71 ✓
North Dakota @ South Dakota +3.2 146.2 65% 86–72 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ William & Mary -5.7 134.8 26% 70–63 ✓
Charleston @ Delaware -5.2 147.0 27% 84–67 ✓
Elon @ Northeastern +5.0 138.4 70% 74–73 ✗
Drexel @ Monmouth -7.5 131.1 22% 67–69 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Stetson +10.8 156.0 87% 80–99 ✓
Chicago State @ Hartford -8.3 138.5 19% 62–49 ✓
Illinois @ Iowa +2.6 153.5 64% 79–81 ✓
George Mason @ Loyola Chicago -2.8 138.9 39% 61–69 ✗
Buffalo @ Western Michigan -3.2 152.2 36% 85–76 ✓
Miami @ Clemson +1.2 147.3 54% 78–74 ✗
Vermont @ UAlbany -8.5 136.3 19% 87–68 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Samford +6.9 142.4 79% 62–73 ✓
Saint Francis @ Merrimack +1.0 132.9 58% 66–70 ✓
South Alabama @ UL Monroe -1.2 138.4 47% 72–64 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State -0.2 139.0 47% 57–73 ✗
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State +5.6 144.7 75% 85–90 ✓
Western Illinois @ Omaha +0.2 145.5 51% 75–72 ✗
Arkansas @ South Carolina -13.7 136.6 14% 65–63 ✓
Purdue @ Indiana +0.7 136.8 49% 74–79 ✓
Alabama @ LSU -12.8 146.0 15% 79–69 ✓
Texas @ Kansas State +2.0 151.6 60% 69–66 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Charlotte -3.4 129.8 34% 67–52 ✓
SMU @ East Carolina +2.1 142.9 62% 72–77 ✓
Colgate @ American University -2.2 138.5 40% 60–61 ✗
Murray State @ Indiana State +5.4 149.3 71% 56–99 ✓
UTEP @ Western Kentucky +2.4 136.7 63% 69–74 ✓
Florida International @ UAB +11.5 150.6 86% 72–76 ✓
Norfolk State @ Hampton -9.1 145.5 18% 83–71 ✓
UNC Asheville @ South Carolina Upstate -4.2 138.9 31% 70–76 ✗
James Madison @ App State -2.4 140.5 41% 63–57 ✓
Stony Brook @ Hofstra +13.5 137.9 88% 58–79 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Bellarmine +2.2 131.3 62% 64–71 ✓
Queens University @ Austin Peay -4.7 143.6 29% 70–69 ✓
Grambling @ Alabama State -6.2 133.6 23% 73–60 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee Tech +0.0 153.4 51% 80–82 ✓
Morehead State @ Southern Indiana +3.5 143.1 65% 71–66 ✗
Tennessee State @ Eastern Illinois -0.5 145.8 46% 65–61 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Little Rock -4.3 147.3 28% 84–81 ✓
UT Martin @ Lindenwood -3.1 146.3 34% 75–80 ✗
St. John's @ Xavier +9.9 163.2 84% 71–96 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alcorn State +4.4 139.4 71% 67–70 ✓
Boston University @ Loyola Maryland -1.8 130.4 41% 68–67 ✓
Illinois State @ Belmont +8.0 142.5 81% 75–90 ✓
Syracuse @ Boston College -1.3 139.0 46% 77–68 ✓
Incarnate Word @ LSU New Orleans -0.7 145.7 43% 78–70 ✓
Sam Houston @ UT Arlington -11.2 132.7 15% 58–70 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Bowling Green +2.1 150.0 61% 86–78 ✗
Idaho @ Sacramento State +5.9 140.2 74% 82–76 ✗
Liberty @ Lipscomb -5.3 135.0 26% 64–69 ✗
Jacksonville @ North Florida -0.2 137.6 51% 58–65 ✗
McNeese @ East Texas A&M +5.7 139.6 74% 58–60 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Tarleton State +6.6 145.8 77% 68–65 ✗
Columbia @ Princeton +14.6 146.7 89% 66–88 ✓
Bradley @ Northern Iowa -2.9 139.9 37% 77–69 ✓
Yale @ Dartmouth -9.6 141.1 18% 72–53 ✓
Cornell @ Pennsylvania +0.1 157.8 52% 86–92 ✓
Brown @ Harvard +3.8 135.7 69% 68–65 ✗
UTSA @ Middle Tennessee +11.2 143.7 87% 60–84 ✓
Missouri @ Mississippi State +2.5 141.3 63% 52–63 ✓
Wofford @ Furman +12.9 152.0 87% 67–80 ✓
St. Thomas @ Denver +0.3 146.1 51% 68–57 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Montana State +10.0 145.7 87% 62–75 ✓
Florida A&M @ Texas Southern +8.1 136.5 79% 76–69 ✗
Southern @ Alabama A&M -5.9 142.0 25% 61–82 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Jackson State +8.7 138.7 81% 82–78 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Prairie View A&M +9.2 138.6 81% 60–58 ✗
North Carolina @ Duke +5.3 143.9 71% 57–63 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.