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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–19 on winners spread MAE 8.6 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Washington State @ UCLA +11.8 131.0 87% 52–76 ✓
Army @ Bucknell -0.5 141.9 47% 67–73 ✗
Drake @ Valparaiso -7.3 141.5 21% 85–82 ✓
Northwestern State @ Lamar -9.5 143.5 17% 72–68 ✓
Charleston Southern @ High Point +0.1 152.3 50% 73–81 ✓
Central Michigan @ Toledo +12.4 152.5 88% 59–84 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion +4.8 131.4 69% 58–64 ✓
Texas State @ Troy +5.2 133.6 71% 64–68 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Youngstown State +5.5 142.9 73% 56–74 ✓
Wright State @ Robert Morris +1.5 145.0 58% 82–67 ✗
UC Irvine @ Long Beach State -0.8 151.9 47% 88–93 ✗
North Alabama @ Florida Gulf Coast +7.1 147.4 79% 87–85 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Eastern Kentucky +0.4 147.0 51% 74–77 ✓
Villanova @ Creighton +11.6 138.9 86% 61–66 ✓
Oklahoma @ West Virginia +5.6 140.3 73% 61–93 ✓
North Texas @ Rice -2.4 133.7 40% 74–64 ✓
Nicholls @ Houston Christian -6.3 155.4 25% 92–91 ✓
Dayton @ St. Bonaventure -3.3 131.2 36% 59–68 ✗
Utah State @ Colorado State -4.4 152.2 30% 88–79 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Grand Canyon +3.3 144.3 67% 83–86 ✓
Portland @ Pepperdine +0.2 156.9 51% 93–94 ✓
Marshall @ Louisiana +1.8 156.6 59% 67–77 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Kansas City -12.6 143.5 16% 85–57 ✓
Weber State @ Idaho State +0.4 136.9 50% 72–71 ✗
Georgia @ Texas A&M +8.7 142.7 81% 57–82 ✓
Florida @ Kentucky +4.2 137.0 71% 67–72 ✓
Maryland @ Minnesota -10.9 130.6 16% 81–46 ✓
Seattle U @ New Mexico State -0.4 142.6 46% 75–82 ✗
Southern Utah @ Utah Tech -2.5 158.1 42% 79–86 ✗
Pacific @ BYU +11.3 152.4 86% 66–81 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Fullerton +2.8 137.8 65% 58–64 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana +6.5 140.0 76% 66–67 ✓
Oregon State @ Arizona +16.8 142.1 90% 52–84 ✓
Washington @ USC +9.5 145.0 83% 74–80 ✓
Oregon @ Arizona State +2.7 138.6 64% 75–70 ✗
Wyoming @ San José State +5.4 139.5 74% 64–84 ✓
Abilene Christian @ California Baptist +4.3 138.5 73% 87–71 ✗
Santa Clara @ San Francisco +3.1 150.0 64% 84–70 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ San Diego -5.0 156.3 28% 79–87 ✗
Cal State Bakersfield @ UC San Diego +3.4 132.5 64% 75–69 ✗
Hawai'i @ Cal Poly -6.8 124.0 23% 69–56 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Northridge -9.8 128.9 16% 67–72 ✗
Eastern Washington @ Portland State -2.1 151.3 39% 98–88 ✓
Gonzaga @ Saint Mary's +4.9 141.2 68% 70–78 ✓
DePaul @ Seton Hall +11.0 140.1 87% 64–69 ✓
La Salle @ Saint Joseph's +6.0 143.7 74% 73–65 ✗
Fordham @ Richmond +1.1 138.7 55% 58–68 ✓
Ohio State @ Michigan +0.6 144.1 54% 69–77 ✓
Missouri State @ Southern Illinois +2.7 123.2 65% 53–73 ✓
Niagara @ Siena +6.7 129.5 77% 56–54 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Quinnipiac +11.1 135.1 87% 79–75 ✗
Canisius @ Marist +1.2 135.0 52% 67–75 ✓
Rider @ Manhattan -3.9 141.3 34% 67–56 ✓
Iona @ Fairfield -6.9 134.7 26% 70–61 ✓
Wichita State @ Tulsa -4.0 142.5 31% 86–75 ✓
Penn State @ Nebraska -1.8 134.7 45% 63–72 ✗
Houston @ Temple -11.4 132.0 16% 81–65 ✓
California @ Utah +15.2 131.6 88% 46–61 ✓
Northwestern @ Wisconsin +1.9 127.1 59% 54–52 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.