Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | MONT -333 NAU +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +1 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -8.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -6.1 (-5.1) | 139.5 (-6.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -6.6 (-5.6) | 135.6 (-2.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -6.5 (-5.5) | 140.0 (-7.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -5.8 (-4.8) | 139.2 (-6.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MONT 98 – 72 NAU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | MONT 78 – 64 NAU |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MONT 74 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | MONT 83 – 80 NAU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | MONT 81 – 76 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 10-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.5 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#167) | -5.2 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#208) | -1.40 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#187) | -1.64 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#206) | 0.421 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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