Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | NAU +145 MONT -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +26 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | MONT -4.0 (-22.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+26.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -2.7 (-23.3) | 140.0 (+30.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -3.7 (-22.3) | 141.4 (+28.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -4.2 (-21.8) | 138.7 (+31.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -3.6 (-22.4) | 139.7 (+30.3) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2026 | MONT 78 – 64 NAU |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MONT 74 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | MONT 83 – 80 NAU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | MONT 81 – 76 NAU |
| Feb 9, 2024 | MONT 94 – 66 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-7 | 11-6 |
| Away | 1-13 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#295) | -1.2 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#330) | -0.27 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#319) | -0.13 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.374 (#349) | 0.483 (#208) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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