Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | NAU +240 MONT -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +28 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | MONT -6.3 (-21.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -5.2 (-22.8) | 142.1 (+17.9) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -6.0 (-22.0) | 138.7 (+21.3) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -4.2 (-23.8) | 140.1 (+19.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -4.8 (-23.2) | 140.1 (+19.9) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MONT 98 – 72 NAU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | MONT 78 – 64 NAU |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MONT 74 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | MONT 83 – 80 NAU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | MONT 81 – 76 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-12 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -9.0 (#310) | 0.6 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#220) | 0.47 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#243) | 0.37 (#151) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#209) | 0.527 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 23.0% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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