Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | MONT -380 NAU +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +5 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -8.2 (-3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -6.4 (-1.4) | 150.4 (+6.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -5.4 (-0.4) | 150.9 (+6.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -5.5 (-0.5) | 151.8 (+5.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -5.5 (-0.5) | 151.7 (+5.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MONT 98 – 72 NAU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | MONT 78 – 64 NAU |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MONT 74 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | MONT 83 – 80 NAU |
| Feb 9, 2024 | MONT 94 – 66 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#173) | -4.9 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#99) | -0.71 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#107) | -1.09 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#74) | 0.438 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 68.3% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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