Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | MONT -238 NAU +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +14 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | MONT -6.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -5.6 (+8.4) | 142.1 (-0.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONT -3.6 (+10.4) | 139.9 (+2.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONT -3.8 (+10.2) | 140.2 (+1.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -3.1 (+10.9) | 143.4 (-1.4) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MONT 98 – 72 NAU |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MONT 74 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | MONT 83 – 80 NAU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | MONT 81 – 76 NAU |
| Feb 9, 2024 | MONT 94 – 66 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-7 |
| Away | 5-9 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#223) | -6.8 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.76 (#243) | -1.34 (#282) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#235) | -1.61 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#224) | 0.403 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 67.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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