Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | NAU -105 MONT -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +3 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | NAU -0.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.5 (+13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONT -0.2 (-2.8) | 146.9 (+16.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONT -0.1 (-2.9) | 144.9 (+18.1) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -0.0 (-3.0) | 146.0 (+17.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -0.0 (-3.0) | 147.9 (+15.1) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 20, 2026 | MONT 98 – 72 NAU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | MONT 78 – 64 NAU |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MONT 74 – 65 NAU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | MONT 81 – 76 NAU |
| Feb 9, 2024 | MONT 94 – 66 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 10-5 | 15-1 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -4.5 (#234) | -1.9 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#244) | 0.67 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#245) | 0.42 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#261) | 0.544 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | MONT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 30.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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