Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | UL -115 MRSH -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +10 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -0.8 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -2.0 (+8.0) | 156.3 (-12.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -1.6 (+8.4) | 155.9 (-11.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -1.9 (+8.1) | 156.9 (-12.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -1.8 (+8.2) | 156.6 (-12.6) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2025 | UL 79 – 68 MRSH |
| Dec 30, 2023 | MRSH 75 – 61 UL |
| Nov 24, 2021 | MRSH 93 – 79 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 24-8 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 13-5 |
| Home | 14-0 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-7 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 81.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#102) | 8.9 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#66) | 1.06 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#60) | 1.51 (#75) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#49) | 0.560 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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