Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Sun Belt Conference · Cajundome · February 5, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread UL -0.5 Home covered
O/U 158.5 Under
Money UL -115 / MRSH -111
Model Predictions
Spread Total UL win
Actual UL +10 144 Won
Massey MRSH -0.8 (+10.8)
Massey Totals 161.3 (-17.3)
Bradley-Terry 74%
Weighted B-T 76%
Baseline ML UL -2.0 (+8.0) 156.3 (-12.3) 63%
Baseline Plus ML UL -1.6 (+8.4) 155.9 (-11.9) 65%
Efficiency Plus ML UL -1.9 (+8.1) 156.9 (-12.9) 69%
Baseline Tuned ML UL -1.8 (+8.2) 156.6 (-12.6) 59%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 16, 2025 UL 7968 MRSH
Dec 30, 2023 MRSH 7561 UL
Nov 24, 2021 MRSH 9379 UL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UL MRSH
Overall 26-8 24-8
Conference 13-5 13-5
Home 14-0 15-2
Away 7-7 9-5
Neutral 5-1 0-1
Last 5 5-0 4-1
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 74.9 81.2
Avg Pts Against 70.1 71.2
Massey 4.5 (#102) 8.9 (#60)
Bradley-Terry 1.47 (#66) 1.06 (#81)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.94 (#60) 1.51 (#75)
RPI 0.578 (#49) 0.560 (#74)
Shooting & Four Factors UL MRSH
FG% 47.8% 46.7%
3PT% 38.7% 33.1%
REB / G 34.8 40.0
OREB / G 10.8 13.2
AST / TO 1.22 1.59
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.0% 52.7%
TOV% 17.6% 15.6%
ORB% 33.2% 34.0%
FT Rate 25.0% 15.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.2% 46.8%
Opp TOV% 18.6% 20.9%
DRB% 72.5% 67.0%
Opp FT Rate 23.3% 16.8%

Game Analysis

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