I had 'em all out there steppin' and fetchin' like their heads were on fire and their asses was catchin'. "The Ballad of Uneasy Rider" - Charlie Daniels
Sun Belt Conference · Cajundome · February 16, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread MRSH -6.5 Home covered
O/U 146.5 Over
Money UL +225 / MRSH -275
Model Predictions
Spread Total UL win
Actual UL +11 147 Won
Massey MRSH -6.0 (+17.0)
Massey Totals 144.2 (+2.8)
Bradley-Terry 31%
Weighted B-T 26%
Baseline ML MRSH -4.1 (+15.1) 141.3 (+5.7) 32%
Baseline Plus ML MRSH -4.4 (+15.4) 141.0 (+6.0) 36%
Efficiency Plus ML MRSH -4.3 (+15.3) 140.6 (+6.4) 37%
Baseline Tuned ML MRSH -4.2 (+15.2) 141.3 (+5.7) 32%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 30, 2023 MRSH 7561 UL
Feb 5, 2023 UL 7767 MRSH
Nov 24, 2021 MRSH 9379 UL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UL MRSH
Overall 12-21 20-13
Conference 8-10 12-6
Home 5-12 14-3
Away 6-5 5-9
Neutral 1-4 1-1
Last 5 2-3 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 64.9 74.7
Avg Pts Against 73.3 72.5
Massey -10.6 (#328) -1.4 (#185)
Bradley-Terry -1.61 (#312) -0.22 (#196)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.04 (#315) -0.32 (#193)
RPI 0.447 (#279) 0.501 (#177)
Shooting & Four Factors UL MRSH
FG% 40.0% 43.2%
3PT% 31.8% 31.4%
REB / G 30.5 36.5
OREB / G 9.4 12.4
AST / TO 0.99 1.16
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.2% 49.7%
TOV% 16.1% 16.8%
ORB% 26.1% 32.8%
FT Rate 21.6% 24.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.5% 50.4%
Opp TOV% 18.5% 17.7%
DRB% 65.4% 70.1%
Opp FT Rate 32.2% 28.4%

Game Analysis

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