Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +14 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -5.5 (+8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+33.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -4.9 (+9.1) | 140.1 (+31.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -5.9 (+8.1) | 146.1 (+25.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -5.0 (+9.0) | 148.1 (+23.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -5.4 (+8.6) | 139.3 (+32.7) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 16, 2025 | UL 79 – 68 MRSH |
| Dec 30, 2023 | MRSH 75 – 61 UL |
| Feb 5, 2023 | UL 77 – 67 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#220) | -0.6 (#181) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#243) | 1.20 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#227) | 1.78 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.353 (#329) | 0.659 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 25.4% |
| 3PT% | 22.4% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 41.7 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 17.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 30.2% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 33.8% |
| DRB% | 78.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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