Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSD -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | UCSD -200 CSUB +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUB +6 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | UCSD -4.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.4 (+20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSD -2.5 (-8.5) | 129.2 (+14.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCSD -2.9 (-8.9) | 128.8 (+15.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSD -3.4 (-9.4) | 132.5 (+11.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCSD -3.0 (-9.0) | 133.2 (+10.8) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | UCSD 84 – 72 CSUB |
| Jan 17, 2026 | UCSD 83 – 62 CSUB |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UCSD 73 – 54 CSUB |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCSD 81 – 60 CSUB |
| Mar 1, 2024 | CSUB 70 – 57 UCSD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-14 |
| Home | 4-10 | 6-8 |
| Away | 6-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 59.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 66.1 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#279) | -7.6 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#285) | -1.26 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#286) | -1.47 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#271) | 0.418 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 30.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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