Betting Lines
| Spread | NICH -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | HCU +188 NICH -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NICH +1 | 183 | Lost |
| Massey | NICH -6.2 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (+25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NICH -5.5 (+4.5) | 156.0 (+27.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NICH -5.8 (+4.8) | 154.3 (+28.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NICH -6.3 (+5.3) | 155.4 (+27.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NICH -6.4 (+5.4) | 157.2 (+25.8) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | HCU 72 – 68 NICH |
| Dec 18, 2025 | NICH 79 – 64 HCU |
| Feb 4, 2025 | NICH 75 – 67 HCU |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NICH 83 – 73 HCU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | NICH 98 – 94 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-8 | 11-2 |
| Away | 2-12 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.0 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -14.9 (#358) | -5.1 (#260) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.44 (#350) | -0.75 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.95 (#350) | -0.97 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#349) | 0.482 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.6% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 37.0% |
Game Analysis
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