Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | UK -213 FLA +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UK -3.2 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -4.6 (+0.4) | 138.8 (+0.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -5.1 (-0.1) | 138.5 (+0.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -4.2 (+0.8) | 137.0 (+2.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -3.9 (+1.1) | 137.6 (+1.4) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | FLA 71 – 63 UK |
| Mar 7, 2026 | FLA 84 – 77 UK |
| Feb 14, 2026 | FLA 92 – 83 UK |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UK 106 – 100 FLA |
| Feb 1, 2024 | FLA 94 – 91 UK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-6 |
| Away | 6-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#39) | 11.3 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#37) | 1.59 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#39) | 2.08 (#54) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#51) | 0.571 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 43.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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