Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | SBU +188 DAY -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +9 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -4.1 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -2.6 (+11.6) | 129.0 (-2.0) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -3.3 (+12.3) | 131.2 (-4.2) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -3.4 (+12.4) | 131.4 (-4.4) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -2.5 (+11.5) | 130.4 (-3.4) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | DAY 68 – 63 SBU |
| Feb 4, 2026 | DAY 72 – 70 SBU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SBU 75 – 53 DAY |
| Feb 3, 2024 | DAY 76 – 71 SBU |
| Jan 19, 2022 | DAY 68 – 50 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-11 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 61.0 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#168) | 7.5 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#170) | 0.76 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#171) | 1.33 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#149) | 0.543 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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