Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -238 SBU +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +5 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -5.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-17.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -5.8 (-0.8) | 142.1 (-11.1) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -7.3 (-2.3) | 139.2 (-8.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -6.7 (-1.7) | 139.6 (-8.6) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -6.1 (-1.1) | 140.8 (-9.8) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 4, 2026 | DAY 72 – 70 SBU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SBU 75 – 53 DAY |
| Feb 3, 2024 | DAY 76 – 71 SBU |
| Feb 5, 2023 | SBU 68 – 59 DAY |
| Jan 19, 2022 | DAY 68 – 50 SBU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 8-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#85) | 1.9 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#69) | 0.09 (#154) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#67) | 0.24 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#55) | 0.517 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 35.4% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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