Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +18 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -5.3 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (-15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -4.7 (+13.3) | 135.7 (-17.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -4.9 (+13.1) | 134.1 (-16.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -4.5 (+13.5) | 135.8 (-17.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -5.2 (+12.8) | 137.4 (-19.4) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | DAY 68 – 63 SBU |
| Feb 4, 2026 | DAY 72 – 70 SBU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SBU 75 – 53 DAY |
| Feb 3, 2024 | DAY 76 – 71 SBU |
| Feb 5, 2023 | SBU 68 – 59 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 12-5 |
| Home | 13-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 7-6 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.2 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#77) | 5.5 (#98) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#101) | 1.79 (#58) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#104) | 2.01 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#108) | 0.587 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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