Betting Lines
| Spread | PORT -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | PEPP +120 PORT -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +1 | 187 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -1.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.9 (+26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PORT -0.6 (+1.6) | 157.1 (+29.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PORT -1.1 (+2.1) | 156.5 (+30.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -0.2 (+0.8) | 156.9 (+30.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PORT -0.6 (+1.6) | 156.7 (+30.3) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | PORT 77 – 68 PEPP |
| Feb 19, 2026 | PEPP 95 – 87 PORT |
| Jan 15, 2026 | PEPP 67 – 63 PORT |
| Mar 8, 2025 | PEPP 86 – 73 PORT |
| Feb 28, 2025 | PORT 87 – 67 PEPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 5-11 |
| Home | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Away | 0-12 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 79.1 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#201) | 0.4 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#279) | 0.06 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#242) | 0.24 (#148) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#253) | 0.486 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | PORT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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