Betting Lines
| Spread | SMC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | SMC -163 GONZ +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMC +8 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | SMC -5.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMC -4.7 (+3.3) | 140.0 (+8.0) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMC -6.3 (+1.7) | 136.6 (+11.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMC -4.9 (+3.1) | 141.2 (+6.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMC -4.6 (+3.4) | 141.6 (+6.4) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SMC 70 – 59 GONZ |
| Feb 1, 2026 | GONZ 73 – 65 SMC |
| Mar 12, 2025 | GONZ 58 – 51 SMC |
| Feb 23, 2025 | SMC 74 – 67 GONZ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | SMC 62 – 58 GONZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 14-2 |
| Home | 16-2 | 15-1 |
| Away | 6-2 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 9-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 85.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.0 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 16.2 (#9) | 14.6 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#22) | 3.08 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#18) | 4.05 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#19) | 0.646 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMC | GONZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 51.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 78.5% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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