Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -163 TXST +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +4 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -7.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.3 (+4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -4.9 (-0.9) | 132.3 (-0.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -5.6 (-1.6) | 129.0 (+3.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -5.2 (-1.2) | 133.6 (-1.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -5.1 (-1.1) | 135.3 (-3.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TXST 74 – 62 TROY |
| Dec 31, 2025 | TROY 100 – 80 TXST |
| Feb 26, 2025 | TROY 74 – 69 TXST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TXST 74 – 73 TROY |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TXST 74 – 68 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 4-10 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#128) | -2.0 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#171) | -0.28 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#154) | -0.41 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#156) | 0.485 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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