Betting Lines
| Spread | WEB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | IDST +140 WEB -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WEB +1 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | IDST -0.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -0.4 (-1.4) | 134.6 (+8.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WEB -0.9 (-0.1) | 131.8 (+11.2) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -0.4 (-1.4) | 136.9 (+6.1) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -0.1 (-1.1) | 136.7 (+6.3) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | WEB 83 – 73 IDST |
| Jan 31, 2026 | WEB 81 – 79 IDST |
| Feb 9, 2025 | IDST 72 – 67 WEB |
| Jan 12, 2025 | WEB 77 – 69 IDST |
| Feb 25, 2024 | IDST 80 – 62 WEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-4 |
| Away | 4-12 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 66.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#247) | -1.7 (#206) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#292) | -0.31 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#264) | -0.62 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#308) | 0.474 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | WEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 78.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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