Betting Lines
| Spread | DRKE -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | VAL +320 DRKE -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DRKE +3 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | DRKE -8.9 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (+29.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DRKE -8.1 (+5.1) | 143.3 (+23.7) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DRKE -8.6 (+5.6) | 140.7 (+26.3) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DRKE -7.3 (+4.3) | 141.5 (+25.5) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DRKE -7.3 (+4.3) | 142.8 (+24.2) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | VAL 74 – 71 DRKE |
| Feb 10, 2026 | VAL 81 – 76 DRKE |
| Jan 23, 2025 | DRKE 81 – 71 VAL |
| Dec 6, 2024 | DRKE 66 – 60 VAL |
| Feb 1, 2024 | DRKE 81 – 70 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 15-5 |
| Home | 8-7 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-12 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 64.4 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#288) | 5.8 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#268) | 1.14 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#274) | 1.44 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#277) | 0.565 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | DRKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 77.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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