Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | HPU -110 CHSO +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +8 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | CHSO -0.1 (+8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CHSO -0.8 (+8.8) | 151.7 (+2.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -1.2 (+6.8) | 150.5 (+3.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -0.1 (+7.9) | 152.3 (+1.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -0.2 (+7.8) | 152.9 (+1.1) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | HPU 80 – 55 CHSO |
| Jan 10, 2026 | HPU 84 – 82 CHSO |
| Feb 20, 2025 | HPU 83 – 60 CHSO |
| Jan 9, 2025 | HPU 93 – 79 CHSO |
| Feb 24, 2024 | HPU 74 – 59 CHSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-5 | 6-8 |
| Away | 2-11 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.2 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#316) | -5.0 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.13 (#280) | -1.48 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.66 (#296) | -1.58 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#294) | 0.428 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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